A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
